Ecosystem change in the South Pare Mountain bloc, Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

Palaeoecological evidence is used to investigate climatic and anthropogenic drivers of vegetation and fire dynamics through the past ~1200 years in the Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania. Pollen and charcoal analyses are supported by a chronology derived from five accelerator mass spectrometry ages, a 137Cs activity profile and marker horizons from two exotic pollen taxa. Pollen indicator taxa are used to develop a series of environmental indices, and compared with fluctuations in key timber species, and a fire history reconstruction. Prior to AD 1274, the ecosystem is characterised by moist montane forest that is somewhat anomalous with other East African records, providing evidence for the persistence of a mesic environment and ecosystem resilience of the Eastern Arc Mountains. An open drier forest type is recorded from AD 1275 to 1512, resulting from regional aridity; when the aforementioned buffering ability was exceeded and ecosystem resilience curtailed. Maize appears from ~AD 1737, possibly associated with the regional expansion of agriculture to supply the ivory trade. The peak of the caravan trade in the mid-19th century, and later colonial administration, coincides with intensified human impacts, specifically forest clearance suggested by substantial declines in the timber tree Ocotea. Following independence, there are tentative signals of montane forest recovery, which coincide with the establishment of forest reserves, and associated timber bans. Palaeoecological understanding of historical ecosystem change in the Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot is vital to build informed conservation and forest management policies for a future characterised by growing human populations coupled with changing climate–ecosystem relationships.